Introduction
When considering a naturalization application, two of the most common questions are: “What are my chances of approval?” and “What are the recent trends?”
This article analyzes the naturalization statistics published by the Civil Affairs Bureau of the Ministry of Justice, covering 1952 (Showa 27) through 2025 (Reiwa 7), examining trends in application numbers, approvals, rejection rates, and shifts in nationality composition.
Overview of Japan’s Naturalization System
Cumulative Results
Since Japan’s naturalization system was established in 1952, a cumulative total of approximately 619,466 people have acquired Japanese citizenship through naturalization as of 2025.
Trends Over the Past 10 Years
| Year | Applications | Approvals | Rejections | Rejection Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 11,477 | 9,554 | 607 | 6.0% |
| 2017 | 11,063 | 10,315 | 625 | 5.7% |
| 2018 | 9,942 | 9,074 | 667 | 6.8% |
| 2019 | 10,457 | 8,453 | 596 | 6.6% |
| 2020 | 8,673 | 9,079 | 900 | 9.0% |
| 2021 | 9,191 | 8,167 | 863 | 9.6% |
| 2022 | 9,028 | 7,059 | 685 | 8.8% |
| 2023 | 10,265 | 8,823 | 813 | 8.4% |
| 2024 | 12,248 | 9,610 | 690 | 6.7% |
| 2025 | 14,103 | 11,548 | 825 | 6.7% |
Note: The sum of approvals and rejections does not equal total applications due to cases still under review or withdrawn. The rejection rate is calculated as: rejections ÷ (approvals + rejections).
Three Major Trends
Trend 1: Sharp Rise in Applications (2024–2025)
Application numbers surged between 2024 and 2025.
- 2023: 10,265 → 2024: 12,248 (+19.3%)
- 2024: 12,248 → 2025: 14,103 (+15.1%)
This surge is attributed to a wave of preemptive applications triggered by reports that the screening process would be tightened from April 2026.
Trend 2: Fluctuation in Rejection Rates
Rejection rates have varied considerably by period.
| Period | Rejection Rate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2016–2019 | 5.7–6.8% | Relatively stable period |
| 2020–2022 | 8.8–9.6% | COVID-19 impact (delayed interviews, stricter document review) |
| 2023–2025 | 6.7–8.4% | Normalizing trend |
Key takeaway: The rejection rate has hovered between approximately 6% and 9%. Put another way, more than 90% of applicants are approved. It is worth noting that this figure only includes those who formally applied — people who were advised not to apply during the initial consultation stage are not counted.
Trend 3: Major Shifts in Nationality Composition
The nationality breakdown of naturalization applicants has changed dramatically over the past two decades.
| Nationality | Peak | 2025 (Reiwa 7) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| South/North Korea | 10,295 (2001) | 2,017 | ▲80% decrease |
| China | 4,443 (2008) | 5,348 | Increasing |
| Other nationalities | — | 3,708 | Rapid increase |
Decline Among Korean Nationals
Applications from Korean nationals have declined steadily since peaking in 2001. The primary drivers are generational change within the Zainichi Korean community and the fact that most of those who wished to naturalize have already done so.
Surge in “Other” Nationalities
Applications from nationalities classified as “Other” — including Vietnam, the Philippines, Brazil, and Nepal — have increased rapidly. This reflects the growing number of people who came to Japan under technical intern or specified skilled worker programs, established long-term residency, and are now considering naturalization.
Common Reasons for Rejection
The following patterns can be identified from the statistical data.
| Reason | Level of Impact |
|---|---|
| Residency requirement not met (excess days abroad) | High |
| Good conduct issues (criminal record, traffic violations) | High |
| Unpaid taxes or social insurance | Very High |
| Discovery of fraudulent declarations | Very High (possible permanent bar) |
| Insufficient Japanese language ability | Moderate |
| Incomplete or inconsistent documentation | Moderate |
Processing Time Trends
While the Ministry of Justice does not publish official standard processing times, practical experience indicates the following.
| Period | Estimated Processing Time |
|---|---|
| Pre-COVID (before 2019) | 8–12 months |
| During COVID (2020–2022) | 12–18 months |
| Current (2023–) | 10–14 months |
Note: Given the sharp increase in applications in 2024–2025, processing times may lengthen further going forward.
Key Takeaways from the Data
- Approval rate exceeds 90% — If requirements are met, the probability of approval is high
- Preparation is essential — Most rejections stem from unmet requirements or incomplete documentation
- Timing matters — Allow ample preparation time rather than rushing an application
- Leverage professional support — Preliminary eligibility assessment and proper document preparation minimize the risk of rejection
Our Support
For consultations on naturalization applications, please contact Kaneko Hidetaka Administrative Scrivener Office.
- 98% approval track record
- End-to-end support: from eligibility assessment to document preparation
- Languages: Japanese, Chinese, Vietnamese
- Free initial consultation
- Serving clients nationwide, primarily in Chiba and Tokyo (online consultations available)